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The Fourth Turning: A Book Review
The Fourth Turning is a book by William Strauss and Neil Howe that presents a theory of American history based on cycles of four generational archetypes and four historical eras. The authors claim that modern history moves in cycles of about 80 to 100 years, each composed of four \"turnings\" that last about 20 to 25 years. Each turning corresponds to a different mood and challenge for society, and each generation plays a different role in each turning.
The book was published in 1997 and predicted that the United States would enter a crisis period around the year 2005, which would last until the 2020s. The authors also foresaw that this crisis would be triggered by a catalyst event, such as a terrorist attack, a financial collapse, or a pandemic. The crisis would then lead to a climactic event, such as a war, a revolution, or a natural disaster, that would resolve the conflict and usher in a new order.
The book has gained popularity and influence in recent years, especially among political and cultural leaders who see parallels between the current situation and the predictions of the book. Some critics, however, have questioned the validity and accuracy of the theory, as well as its implications for the future.
If you are interested in learning more about this book and its theory, you can download a free pdf version of it from this link [^1^]. You can also read a summary and analysis of it from this link [^2^].
The Fourth Turning theory is based on the idea that each generation has a distinct collective personality and role in history, shaped by the events and mood of their formative years. The four generational archetypes are:
Prophets: Idealistic and visionary leaders who challenge the old order and inspire a new one. They are born during a High, a time of social stability and optimism. They grow up as indulged children during an Awakening, a time of spiritual and cultural upheaval. They become moralistic and crusading adults during an Unraveling, a time of individualism and cynicism. They become wise and powerful elders during a Crisis, a time of danger and sacrifice.
Nomads: Pragmatic and rebellious survivors who adapt to changing circumstances and protect themselves and their loved ones. They are born during an Awakening, a time of spiritual and cultural upheaval. They grow up as neglected children during an Unraveling, a time of individualism and cynicism. They become alienated and realistic adults during a Crisis, a time of danger and sacrifice. They become tough and resilient elders during a High, a time of social stability and optimism.
Heroes: Confident and optimistic achievers who work together to overcome challenges and create a better world. They are born during an Unraveling, a time of individualism and cynicism. They grow up as protected children during a Crisis, a time of danger and sacrifice. They become heroic and cooperative adults during a High, a time of social stability and optimism. They become arrogant and indulgent elders during an Awakening, a time of spiritual and cultural upheaval.
Artists: Creative and sensitive nurturers who support and enrich the lives of others. They are born during a Crisis, a time of danger and sacrifice. They grow up as conformist children during a High, a time of social stability and optimism. They become expressive and compassionate adults during an Awakening, a time of spiritual and cultural upheaval. They become empathetic and flexible elders during an Unraveling, a time of individualism and cynicism.
The theory also identifies four historical eras or turnings that correspond to the four generational archetypes. The turnings are marked by shifts in the social, political, and economic climate of society. The four turnings are:
The First Turning: The High. A time of social harmony, strong institutions, collective values, economic prosperity, and technological innovation. The most recent example is the post-World War II era from 1946 to 1964.
The Second Turning: The Awakening. A time of spiritual renewal, cultural diversity, personal expression, social activism, moral questioning, and institutional challenge. The most recent example is the Consciousness Revolution from 1964 to 1984.
The Third Turning: The Unraveling. A time of social fragmentation, weakening institutions, individualism, cynicism, cultural relativism, economic inequality, and technological change. The most recent example is the Culture Wars from 1984 to 2008.
The Fourth Turning: The Crisis. A time of social turmoil, institutional collapse, civic decay, existential threat, collective sacrifice, heroic action, and historical transformation. The most recent example is the ongoing Global Financial Crisis from 2008 to the present.
According to the theory, each turning lasts about 20 to 25 years, which means that each saeculum or cycle lasts about 80 to 100 years in total. The theory claims that these cycles have been repeating throughout American history since the colonial era. 061ffe29dd